2027 Presidential Race: Marine Le Pen Leads Polling Amid Legal Uncertainty
Marine Le Pen maintains a significant lead in early polling for the upcoming presidential election, while the candidate from the centrist bloc and Jean-Luc Mélenchon follow closely behind.
As the decision looms from French judges regarding the ongoing investigation into the parliamentary assistants of Eurodeputies from the National Rally (formerly National Front), polling data suggests that Marine Le Pen is positioned as the frontrunner for the 2027 presidential election.
The verdict, expected on Monday morning, will determine if Le Pen, a key figure embroiled in the case and among the 27 defendants, will face a potential ineligibility ruling that could impede her candidacy.
Should a conviction be pronounced with immediate effect, it would prevent her from representing the National Rally in the upcoming election, creating significant implications for her political future.
Le Pen's polling performance indicates she could secure between 34% and 37% of the first-round vote, according to recent data from Ifop.
Her support may fluctuate depending on rival candidates, with a stronger showing anticipated if Édouard Philippe from the central bloc and Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau enter the race.
Should both run, Le Pen’s support could dip slightly, while her numbers might improve against competitors like Gabriel Attal and Laurent Wauquiez.
Edouard Philippe, the mayor of Le Havre and currently the sole declared candidate from the central bloc, is projected to secure between 20% and 25% of the vote.
His position could be jeopardized by potential candidacies from both Retailleau and Socialist leader Raphaël Glucksmann, although Attal is also expected to vie for a spot in the second round, likely garnering just over 20%.
On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise (LFI) holds a stable position in third place, attracting between 12% and 13% of voter intentions.
Despite challenges related to his public image, exacerbated by controversial remarks regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict, he retains a solid electoral base.
In terms of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure is navigating a leadership re-election process amid declining polling support.
His current standing is estimated at around 4% to 5%, an improvement over Anne Hidalgo's performance in the last election.
Communist candidate Fabien Roussel is polling at between 2% and 4%, and ecologist Marine Tondelier stands at about 3%.
On the right, aspirations for a second-round qualification remain low.
Laurent Wauquiez, a notable contender for the Republican party nomination, is polling between 5% and 8%.
His fortunes could be bolstered if Gabriel Attal aligns with him.
In contrast, Bruno Retailleau appears to be a rising figure, with polling hovering at around 11%, potentially crossing the symbolic threshold of 10%.
Éric Zemmour, representing the Reconquête party, is seeing a slight decline from his 2022 outcomes, estimated at between 5% and 6%, while Nicolas Dupont-Aignan is projected to receive 3% to 4% of the votes, reflecting modest gains since the last election.
The verdict, expected on Monday morning, will determine if Le Pen, a key figure embroiled in the case and among the 27 defendants, will face a potential ineligibility ruling that could impede her candidacy.
Should a conviction be pronounced with immediate effect, it would prevent her from representing the National Rally in the upcoming election, creating significant implications for her political future.
Le Pen's polling performance indicates she could secure between 34% and 37% of the first-round vote, according to recent data from Ifop.
Her support may fluctuate depending on rival candidates, with a stronger showing anticipated if Édouard Philippe from the central bloc and Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau enter the race.
Should both run, Le Pen’s support could dip slightly, while her numbers might improve against competitors like Gabriel Attal and Laurent Wauquiez.
Edouard Philippe, the mayor of Le Havre and currently the sole declared candidate from the central bloc, is projected to secure between 20% and 25% of the vote.
His position could be jeopardized by potential candidacies from both Retailleau and Socialist leader Raphaël Glucksmann, although Attal is also expected to vie for a spot in the second round, likely garnering just over 20%.
On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise (LFI) holds a stable position in third place, attracting between 12% and 13% of voter intentions.
Despite challenges related to his public image, exacerbated by controversial remarks regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict, he retains a solid electoral base.
In terms of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure is navigating a leadership re-election process amid declining polling support.
His current standing is estimated at around 4% to 5%, an improvement over Anne Hidalgo's performance in the last election.
Communist candidate Fabien Roussel is polling at between 2% and 4%, and ecologist Marine Tondelier stands at about 3%.
On the right, aspirations for a second-round qualification remain low.
Laurent Wauquiez, a notable contender for the Republican party nomination, is polling between 5% and 8%.
His fortunes could be bolstered if Gabriel Attal aligns with him.
In contrast, Bruno Retailleau appears to be a rising figure, with polling hovering at around 11%, potentially crossing the symbolic threshold of 10%.
Éric Zemmour, representing the Reconquête party, is seeing a slight decline from his 2022 outcomes, estimated at between 5% and 6%, while Nicolas Dupont-Aignan is projected to receive 3% to 4% of the votes, reflecting modest gains since the last election.
