On June 3, 2025, Mathias Cormann, Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), addressed the growing challenges facing the global economic environment, particularly as a result of U.S. tariff policies.

During a press conference at the OECD headquarters in Paris, Cormann emphasized that the recent trade measures have significantly impacted economic activity worldwide.

"The global economic environment has become much more difficult," Cormann stated, reflecting concerns about the effects of increased customs duties imposed by the U.S. on its trading partners.

Alvaro Pereira, the chief economist of the OECD, indicated that this shift in U.S. trade policy has prompted a downward revision of economic growth expectations for nearly every country globally.

The OECD's reports indicate that both consumption and investment are being adversely affected due to trade uncertainties stemming from the U.S. policies.

The organization, which comprises 38 developed nations, is currently holding a ministerial meeting in Paris, coinciding with discussions between American and European negotiators regarding tariffs.

Pereira noted the urgency for affected nations, stating, "The best option is to sit down and reach an agreement, which would benefit everyone impacted by these U.S. sanctions."

Since returning to the White House in January, President Trump has enacted a sweeping tariff agenda, creating a climate of uncertainty for businesses.

Recent announcements have included a significant increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are set to double to 50% starting Wednesday.

The OECD's economic outlook suggests a temporary boost in economic activity in late 2024 and early 2025, as businesses rushed to stock up before the implementation of new tariffs.

However, signs of economic deterioration have begun to emerge, including a drop in maritime shipping prices between Shanghai and the U.S. This decline is seen as a direct consequence of the ongoing trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, which saw a brief easing of tensions following an agreement reached in April.

The structure of global trade emphasizes the significance of the U.S. market, with around 75% of Mexico and Canada’s goods exports destined for the United States, along with 19% for Japan, 13% for China, and 10% for Germany.

Recently, the effective tariff rate on U.S. imported goods rose sharply from 2% to 15.4% in May—marking the highest rate observed since 1938.

The OECD has projected a slowdown in global economic growth, with an expected rate of 2.9% this year and next, which represents declines of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from previous estimates released in March.

This anticipated growth rate is the lowest annual figure since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

For the U.S. economy, the OECD forecasts a "notable slowdown." The nation’s GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% in 2025, a decrease from the earlier estimate of 2.2%, while the anticipated growth for 2026 is now 1.5%, down slightly from 1.6%.

In addition to trade tensions, the OECD highlights a potential decline in net immigration and a reduction in the federal government workforce as factors that could further hinder U.S. growth, referencing policies implemented during Trump's administration.

Despite these forecasts, President Trump maintains an optimistic view of the economy, recently asserting on his social media platform that, "Thanks to tariffs, our economy is THRIVING."

The OECD also projects that U.S. inflation will remain elevated, estimating a rate of 3.2% this year and 2.8% in the following year, figures that are approximately one percentage point higher than inflation rates expected in the Eurozone, also attributed to the imposition of tariffs.

While the Eurozone has not seen a further reduction in growth predictions as in March, the OECD anticipates a GDP increase of 1% for the region this year, though forecasts for France have become more pessimistic, with growth expected to slow from 0.8% to 0.6%.